Housing Market Forecast

One thing is certain — we live in uncertain times. Therefore, more than ever, we rely on “experts” for facts and information to help make important financial decisions. One of those decisions is a home purchase.

Consequently, people gather information regarding the housing market forecast. This, then, gives them confidence in their decision to buy — or not — at any given time.

Housing Market Forecast

A Forbes online article predicts that we don’t have to worry about a housing bubble in 2019. Bill Conerly, who wrote the article, has a Ph.D. from Duke, and was a professor for three years. He’s now a corporate economist. Conerly uses an accurate tool to determine if there’s going to be a housing bubble, and the article goes into interesting detail.

Conerly identified the last bubble by measuring new construction relative to population growth. Therefore, he confidently states we’re not overbuilding. In contrast, new construction was way out of whack with underlying population growth in 2005. Therefore, it was easy to see that the housing industry needed to downsize.

Since the last bubble, Conerly perfected his tool for forecasting housing bubbles. He now uses a benchmark based on historical data. He no longer uses “40 housing units per 100 new residents” (see article for further explanation).

Rather, based on historical data, he now uses “53 housing units per 100 new residents.”

The new formula is higher than the first for a few reasons. First, it accounts for the fact that some old housing needs to be replaced. Also, as Conerly explains, when people move from Iowa to Florida, they can’t take their homes with them. Therefore, there are plenty of abandoned housing units in rural Iowa that do no good for people moving to the Sunshine State.

And, Finally…

As a gauge of where the market is headed related to mortgage rates, read my article from late September 2018, “Flagler County Florida Mortgage.”

If you’re contemplating purchasing a new home within the coming year, contact me to schedule a meeting. We’ll create a plan to get you the home of your dreams while keeping financing costs at a minimum.

Dana Davis
Dana Davis Properties/DHR (Distinguished Homes Realty)
Phone: (386) 569-4998